2002 Chevrolet Cavalier: what breaks, and at what mileage

What breaks on the 2002 Chevrolet Cavalier

Owners have reported 53 named failure modes on the 2002 Chevrolet Cavalier, and the three most-reported carry 20% of everything filed, which is an unusually even spread for one model year.

Other electrical problem leads with 21 reports, about 121 per 1,000 vehicles and with the middle half of reports between 31k to 120,000 miles.

Fuel pump failure follows with 17 reports, usually reported between 26k to 145,000 miles.

Other body or interior problem follows with 13 reports, median 55,000 miles.

By system, the reports fall mostly into electrical (37), brakes (28) and fuel (25).

Severity, and what it costs

Across the named modes, 28 mention a crash, 5 a fire and 18 an injury. Those are the words owners used in their own complaints, and NHTSA does not verify them, but they are the closest thing in this data to a measure of what a failure actually did.

The average severity weight across every report on this year is 4.89, where a stalled engine or a failed airbag weighs many times more than a rattling trim panel, and a figure this high means the reports are dominated by failures with safety consequences rather than annoyances. The weighting is set out in full on the methodology page.

What the top failures cost to put right, as editorial estimates for an independent US shop rather than figures from NHTSA: other electrical problem at $250–$2,000, fuel pump failure at $600–$2,600, other body or interior problem at $200–$2,000 and seat belt or retractor failure at $200–$900. Dealer labour, a seized bolt or a part that is no longer made can push any of these past the top of its range.

16% of the reports on this year sit in the engine, transmission, drivetrain or cooling systems — the four where a repair bill is usually four figures.

How often, against how many were built

Scaled by an estimate of how many of these cars exist, the 2002 Chevrolet Cavalier draws about 1,468 per 1,000 vehicles, which puts it in the 100th percentile of complaint rates among 2002 vehicles we can rate.

That denominator is the weakest number on the page and it is fair to say so plainly. Rate per 1,000 uses a fleet-size estimate derived from recall paperwork for this exact model year. It is a lower bound.

The working figure is 173 vehicles. If the true number is twice that, every rate on this page is half what it says; the ranking against other 2002 vehicles, which is what the risk score uses, is far more robust than the rate itself.

Recalls on the 2002 model year

NHTSA has issued 5 recall campaigns covering the 2002 Chevrolet Cavalier, affecting an estimated 278 vehicles. A recall is a different kind of evidence from a complaint: it is the regulator and the manufacturer agreeing that something has to be fixed, and the fix is free for as long as the car exists.

The campaigns cover exterior lighting, steering, exterior lighting:headlights and fuel system, other:storage:tank assembly:pressure relief dev. Whether the work was actually done on the car in front of you is a question only the VIN can answer, and the manufacturer or NHTSA will answer it free.

One caution about reading these together: a recall usually raises the complaint count for the same part, because owners who read about it go and file. The mileages stay informative; the counts get noisy.

How 2002 compares with the other years

Severe risk for a 2002 — 33rd riskiest of the 329 2002 vehicles we can rate. The comparison is always within the same model year, so an older car is never penalised for having had longer to break.

Across the 10 model years of this car that carry enough reports to score, 1999 comes out best at 66 and 2002 worst at 76, with 2002 itself at 76.

If the model year is negotiable, 1999, 2003, 2005, 2000, 1998, 1996, 2001, 1997 and 2004 score lower than 2002 by a margin worth acting on. Same body, same engines, different luck — usually a supplier change or a mid-cycle fix, which the complaint data can show but never explain.

Within the 1996–2002 generation specifically, 1999 is the strongest year at 66 and 2002 the weakest at 76.

What to look at before buying one

The mileages below are where the first quarter of reports for each mode had already been filed, which makes them the point at which a fault is worth looking for rather than the point at which it happens: fuel pump failure from about 26k and other electrical problem from about 31k.

On a 2002 Chevrolet Cavalier with more miles than that on it, the useful question to put to a seller or a mechanic is whether fuel pump failure has been dealt with, and if so with what parts and at whose expense. A car that has already had the repair is in a different position from one that has not.

Treat it as where to point the inspection, not as a prediction. A well-maintained example can sail past every mileage on this page, and a neglected one can fail well before the first of them.

Where these figures stop being useful

254 owner reports; fleet size estimated from this year's own recall paperwork. Every count on this page is therefore a floor: it is the number of owners who went to the trouble of filing with a federal agency, which is a small and self-selected fraction of the owners who had the fault.

Of those 254 reports, 135 carried an odometer reading, so the mileages here describe 53% of the sample rather than all of it. Owners also round: readings pile up on multiples of ten thousand, which is why this site publishes "about 90,000 miles" and not "91,438".

The failure modes are assigned by software reading the owner's own words, which is accurate in bulk and wrong in individual cases. A mode with a handful of reports may contain a misfiled one.

And nothing here predicts what one car will do. These are other people's complaints, filed years apart, on cars maintained by strangers. Read the page as a map of where this model year has previously gone wrong, then have the specific car in front of you inspected.